The official number of confirmed cases and hospitalizations of COVID-19 in the United States is increasing at a record rate, and experts fear that the daily death toll may soon increase. CNN website has listed five charts based on the data since March this year. All aspects reflect that the current epidemic situation is very serious and alarming. In addition to waiting for effective vaccines and antiviral therapy, more action is needed to contain the epidemic.
As shown in the figure, the United States gradually recovered from the summer epidemic in September this year, with daily cases continuing to decline, but a new round of epidemic hit again in October. According to data from Johns Hopkins University, the number of infections in the United States in a single day last Thursday exceeded 153000, and the average number of new infections in seven days exceeded 131000, both exceeding the historical record. This data is 3.5 times higher than that on September 12 (34198 cases), and is also far higher than the average of 67100 cases on the seventh day of summer.
Recently, the COVID-19 vaccine developed by Pfizer has shown an efficiency of more than 90%, and the vaccine may be widely covered in the second quarter of next year. FDA has just approved Lilly's antibody therapy urgently, which can be said to be good news for epidemic resistance. However, the colder weather means more indoor parties, and the number of daily infections may continue to grow.
Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, said that I would not be surprised to see 200000 new cases in a single day in the next few weeks.
Another point is that this chart only records the number of reported cases, and the actual infection may be seriously underestimated. Especially in the early stage of the epidemic, the virus testing capability is limited, and many infections are actually omitted.
This figure shows the test positive rate, that is, the percentage of infections among the people tested, which has been rising in recent weeks. At present, the average test positive rate is 8.7%, higher than 7.9% in mid July.
The World Health Organization suggested in May this year that the government should keep the test positive rate below 5% for at least 14 days before reopening. Robert Redfield, director of CDC in the United States, also said that the positive rate of the community should be kept below 5% before the school can be opened. Dr. Deborah Birx, coordinator of the White House COVID-19 Working Group, said that the test positive rate was the statistical data that she paid close attention to, and it was the most critical indicator to reflect the development of the virus at a specific time and place.
As shown in the figure, the darker the color is, the higher the positive rate is. In some states, the positive rate has exceeded 50%. That is, one of two people tested is an infected person.
Last Wednesday, about 65300 COVID-19 patients were admitted to hospital, more than twice the number on September 20 (28608), and also exceeded the summer peak of 59718 on July 23 and the spring peak of 59940 on April 15. Seventeen states reported a new record of new inpatient cases last Tuesday.
The new record of the number of hospitalizations shows that the United States has entered the most serious period of the COVID-19 epidemic. It can be seen that the current surge in COVID-19 cases is not only the result of screening for asymptomatic people, but also the manifestation of many people suffering from serious diseases. Some hospitals have reported over capacity.
Statistics show that the average daily death toll in the United States has exceeded 1000 recently, especially 1380 last Wednesday. A prediction data from the Institute of Health Measurement and Evaluation of the University of Washington shows that, even if the government requires the implementation of the current social distance policy, or even stricter policy, 1650 people will die every day in early December, and even more than 2200 will die in early January.
In April this year, the daily death toll in the United States exceeded 2000, with a peak of 2241. The mortality rate after infection is lower than before, which may be due to the increase in the proportion of asymptomatic infections detected, or the increase in the proportion of young people among infected people.
However, with the number of inpatients breaking records again and again, the daily mortality rate will further increase. Although the ratio of hospitalization to death among the confirmed patients has decreased significantly, the number of inpatients and the number of deaths are synchronized wherever they are - the rising curve of the number of deaths can be seen two to three weeks after the curve of the number of inpatients rises.